It’s Your Favorite Time of the Mid-Year!!! Stovall Teams’ Mid-Year Housing Market Update: Why Forecasts Changed in 2026

If the housing market feels confusing right now, you’re not alone.

Mortgage rates have risen. Home sales haven’t picked up like expected. And many buyers and sellers are wondering when things are going to feel easier or be more affordable.

The truth is: a lot changed over the first half of this year.

Back at the end of 2025, economists were forecasting a much stronger housing market for 2026. They expected mortgage rates to come down, affordability to improve more dramatically, and home sales to rebound.

But lingering inflation, economic uncertainty, and growing geopolitical tensions overseas pushed mortgage rates higher than expected. And because rates stayed elevated for longer, many buyers continued to hold off.

That’s why experts recently revised their housing forecasts for the rest of the year (see graph below):

a graph of sales and sales

So, what does this actually mean for you? Let’s break it down.

Mortgage Rates May Remain Elevated

While just about everyone wants mortgage rates to go back to the uppers 5s or low 6s we saw at the start of the year, as of right now, the experts don’t think that’s likely to happen this year.

Instead, forecasts have been updated from the low 6s they originally projected. Many industry organizations are saying rates will stay in roughly the mid 6s this year. The good news is, that’s still lower than rates were a year ago.

Of course, this is based on what we know today. If the conflict overseas comes to an end or inflation drops, this could change. But if you’re waiting for lower rates, it may not pay off in the way you expect.

Existing Home Sales Revised Lower

Back in late 2025, experts expected we’d sell an average of 4.5 million homes this year. Now? That’s dropped down a bit to 4.2 million.

That tells us something important: buyers are still hesitant because affordability remains challenging.

Higher mortgage rates have made monthly payments harder to manage, especially for first-time buyers. And that’s slowed the pace of the market compared to what was originally expected. But even though the forecast was revised down, we’re still expected to sell more homes than last year. 

Once geopolitical tensions resolve and rates begin to settle down, many experts believe that group of buyers will be ready to jump back in. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explains:

“There is sizable pent-up demand that could be released into the market.”

There has already been a few glimmers of renewed hope lately. In recent months, pending homes sale have been improving month-over-month despite higher rates.

So, if you’re able to afford a home at today’s rates, it could still make sense to buy now. Because otherwise, if you wait, you’ll have more competition (and potentially fewer homes to choose from) when those others buyers jump back in.

New Home Sales Also Slowed

Builders also expected to have a stronger year. Earlier forecasts projected new home sales would top 700k in 2026. Now, economists expect we’ll be just shy of that number.

Again, mortgage rates are a major reason why.

But the upside for buyers is that builders may be even more motivated to sell. That means builder incentives, negotiation opportunities, and pricing flexibility may continue in many markets. So, if you live somewhere where there’s more new construction, this may actually be a bright spot for you.

Builders could be more ready to negotiate, and that gives you more leverage to get a better deal.

Home Prices Are Still Expected To Rise

This is one of the most important takeaways from the entire forecast. Even though sales activity is slower, on average, experts did not revise their home price forecast downward.

They still expect prices to rise nationally this year.

Why? Because while buyer demand has softened, the number of homes for sale is still relatively limited overall. That imbalance is helping support prices, even in a slower market.

Of course, conditions vary depending on where you live. Some markets are cooling more than others. But nationally, experts are still projecting steady price growth — not a major decline. And that should be a comfort whether you’re buying or selling.

Because sellers don’t want a major drop in prices. And while buyers may think they do, generally you feel better about a big purchase when it doesn’t depreciate right away.

Bottom Line

The housing market hasn’t rebounded as quickly as experts originally hoped. But that doesn’t mean it’s stalled.

Higher inflation and lingering economic uncertainty caused economists to revise their forecasts for this year. But importantly, when those two things settle down, many experts believe the market will regain its momentum.

So don’t see this revision in forecasts as a sign of trouble. See it as a temporary reaction to overall conditions and uncertainty.

If you want to know what’s happening in your local market, and what it could mean for your plans for the rest of this year, call me today. You can reach me at 714.343.9294 or email [email protected]

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Q. What’s The Secret To Selling Fast, No Matter the Market?

When you put your house on the market, you don’t just want it to sell. You want it to sell fast. But the thing is, nationally, it’s taking a little longer to sell lately. And that slowdown can feel frustrating if you want a fast process. Here’s what you need to realize.

In every market right now, there’s one clear exception:

Well-priced, well-presented homes are still selling, and it’s often faster than you’d expect.

If you can tap into that, you can still set yourself up to move quickly, too. Here’s how to get it done.

How Long It Takes To Sell Today

According to Realtor.com, homes are selling in about 52 days right now. That’s how long the process takes from the day it hits the market until closing day.

And while that may sound slow to you, it’s not slow. It’s normal.

That’s because it’s pretty much right in line with what it was during the last normal years in the market (see 2018-2019 in the graph below):

It just feels slow when you’re eager to move – or when you think back a few years to when homes seemed to sell almost instantly.

But here’s what matters most. The market is normalizing. Not at a standstill.

This is the norm for timing from start to finish. You may have an accepted offer in hand even faster than this.

Markets Where Homes Still Sell Quickly, Even Now

Zillow says the typical home will go “pending” or “under contract” in 19 days. Some homes even see it happen in as little as 7 days. It just depends on where you are – and how you prep your house.

So, don’t let the slowing pace of sales stress you out. Homes can still sell fast, if they’re positioned right.

Just to show you, here’s a quick look at some of the markets that are moving faster than the norm, according to Zillow (see map below). This’ll show you how different it can be based on where you live.

The key things you need to remember when looking at this visual:

  • It varies a lot based on where you live. Within the same state, individual neighborhoods or pockets may sell much faster than the norm.
  • Even in slower moving states, you can still sell quickly. As the map shows, in those places there are still homes that go under contract in as little as a week.

So don’t worry about if your state made either list. As Orphe Divounguy, Senior Economist at Zillow, says:

“The cream of the crop is still selling fast, even in markets that have slowed considerably. . .”

The Big Reasons Some Homes Sit, and Some Sell Fast

And here’s the big secret. While location can definitely play a role, it’s not just about location. It’s about strategy.

Today’s buyers are paying attention to condition. They’re comparing photos, upgrades, layout, location, and price. And they’re choosing homes that feel move-in ready and well worth the value.

The homes that check those boxes? They’re not sitting for long – no matter where they are.

As the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) explains:

“. . . some homes are still flying off the shelves. These houses are often in the Midwest or Northeast, where the lack of new construction keeps a lid on supply. Certain homes in other markets are selling quickly, too, often when a home is move-in ready.”

Because in any market – hot or not – if a home is overpriced, needs too much work, or just doesn’t meet current buyer expectations, it’s not going to sell. 

In this market, the sellers who win are the ones who get real about their house. They’re honest about how their home compares to other listings, realistic about price, and they work with an agent who truly understands today’s market and what it takes to sell.

When your agent knows how to price strategically, spotlight the strengths of your home, and move quickly when the market gives clear signals, that’s when the results follow.

Bottom Line

Today’s housing market rewards the right strategy. Experience matters and working with Stovall Team is the right choice. Because even in a slower area, the homes that are priced realistically and positioned well are still selling – sometimes faster than you may expect.

Connect with Stovall Team today 714.343.9294 if you’re ready to make yours one of them.

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Should I Stay or Should I Go? Stay or Sell? How To Make the Right Call as You Age

At some point, as you start thinking about the years ahead, this question tends to come up:

“Could I stay here long-term… or would it make more sense to move?”

It’s not always urgent. It often shows up in small moments, like going up and down the stairs, keeping up with the maintenance, or just thinking about what the next chapter of your life might look like in this home.

And for most people, the answer is simple. They want to stay.

The USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology found about 90% of adults over 65 prefer to stay in their homes as they get older (see below):

But even if staying feels like the right answer, it’s still worth thinking ahead about what that might actually look like. That’s where the right agent can really help.

What You Need To Plan for If You’re Staying in Your Home

Aging in place is definitely possible. But it’s better if you have a plan. And here’s why. The home that once worked perfectly may need to change with you over the years. And it’s easier if you can anticipate those expenses.

  • Sometimes that means small updates: like adding grab bars in the shower.
  • Other times, you’ll have to make bigger decisions: like reworking layouts or moving key spaces to the first floor.

Some of those changes are going to be simple. Others can be a meaningful investment. And that’s why thinking about it early matters. Not because you need to decide anything right now, but because it gives you time.

  • Time to understand what your home may need.
  • Time to explore your options.
  • Time to find the right contractors.
  • Time to space out the expense of the upgrades.

According to ElderLife Financial, here’s a rough baseline of what it could cost depending on what needs to be done (see below):

And don’t worry. If your heart is really set on staying, but the costs feel like a concern, it helps to know you have options. Depending on your situation, there may be financial assistance programs available, along with tools like home warranties to help manage unexpected costs.

Just remember, if you’re thinking about making updates, it’s always worth having a quick conversation before you start. A real estate agent can help you understand which changes tend to make sense for your situation and how they may impact your home’s value based on your local market.

When Moving Might Make More Sense

But staying isn’t always the best fit for every situation. According to Pegasus Senior Living:

“While most seniors hope to age in place, practical considerations sometimes make selling a home the wiser choice.”

Sometimes, it comes down to a simple shift: when the home that once made life easier, starts to make it harder.

That might look like:

  • Maintenance or yardwork that’s starting to feel overwhelming
  • Stairs or layouts that are getting harder to manage day-to-day
  • Or needing more support or care or being too far from loved ones

And sometimes, it’s not about necessity at all. It’s about lifestyle. Some homeowners just don’t want to live through major renovations. Others are ready to simplify, downsize, or move somewhere that better fits this next chapter, whether that’s a smaller home, a 55+ community, or a place closer to family. 

For them, moving simply means making daily life easier.

Bottom Line

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer here. Where are the grandkids? Are you over climbing the stairs?

Some people stay and make updates. Others move to simplify things. Either can be the right choice. The goal isn’t to pick one today. It’s to understand your options early, so when the time comes, you feel confident instead of rushed.

And if you ever want a sounding board to think through what the future could look like for you, call me today at 714.343.9294.

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Tax Refund? Here’s How It Can Help You Buy a Home

If you’re getting a tax refund this year, here’s something worth thinking about. That money could actually help you get closer to buying a home.

It may not be something you’ve factored into your plan yet, but it can give your savings a nice boost right when you need it most. And whether your refund is a few thousand dollars or more, there are some smart ways to put that money to work as you get ready to buy.

Your Refund May Be Even Bigger This Year

Let’s start with the good news. People are getting even more money back in their refunds than they did last year. The visual below uses data from the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) to show the average individual’s refund is 11.1% higher this year:

Of course, your exact refund will vary. But any extra money you get is a good thing, especially when affordability is still tight. 

How You Can Use Your Tax Refund

So, how can you put that money to work? Here are a few smart ways to use your refund when buying a home, according to Freddie Mac:

  • Put it toward your down payment. Data shows saving for a down payment is one of the biggest hurdles for first-time homebuyers. Using your refund can help you build that up faster. And the good news? You may not need to put as much down as you think.
  • Use it for your closing costs. Closing costs usually range from about 2% to 5% of the home’s purchase price. Using your refund here can make things feel a lot more manageable on closing day.
  • Lower your mortgage rate. You may have the option to buy down your mortgage rate. That means paying a little more upfront to get a lower monthly payment. If you’re looking for ways to make the numbers work a little better, this is something that could be worth asking about.

You Don’t Have To Figure This Out Alone

If you have a tax refund coming, it’s a great time to take another look at your homebuying savings. Maybe you’re almost at your goal and you can buy sooner than you expected.

A trusted real estate agent and lender can help you map out what you need, what your options are, and how to make the most of what you already have, including your tax refund.

Bottom Line

If buying a home is on your radar this year, don’t overlook your tax refund. It could be the extra push that helps you go from almost there to actually ready.

Want to see how far your savings could take you right now? Talk with Stovall Team today 714.343.9294 and we will build a plan that fits your situation.

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Spring Sellers in OC Have an Edge. Here’s Why.

Homeowners looking to sell usually want three things: plenty of interested buyers, strong offers, and a short timeline. Spring is the season that most often delivers all three.

So, if a move has been on your mind this year, this is the window where momentum tends to work in your favor. Here’s what makes this season so powerful for sellers.

1. More Buyers Will Be Looking

Typically speaking, in the housing market, there’s no more popular time to move than the Spring. Historically, data coming out of ShowingTime proves that’s when buyer activity peaks each year. Take a look for yourself (see graph below):

And this year, there’s more than just the seasonal trend working in your favor. Mortgage rates are also sitting near 3-year lows – and that combination matters.

More buyers + improving affordability = more eyes on your house.

That doesn’t mean the market will return to the frenzy of the pandemic – far from it. But it does mean more buyers will be ready to re-enter the market. And that’s good for you. As Redfin says:

“Homebuying demand is improving . . . and mortgage-purchase applications are sitting near their highest level in three years. . .”

You should make sure your house is listed so you can take advantage of the uptick in demand. Because more activity means one thing: more opportunity to get a deal done.

2. You May Get More Offers

With more buyer demand, it makes sense that you may get more offers on your house. And history shows that’s usually true.

If we look at the data for the last three years from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), and take the averages for each month, it’s clear sellers in the Spring get more offers (see graph below):

Now, don’t expect the excessive bidding wars that were so famous in 2020 and 2021. But it does mean, seasonality could help you out this Spring. As Realtor.com explains:

“Spring typically brings out more buyers who are ready to make a move before summer. Listings see more views, showings, and offers during this season.”

And that could be really good for your bottom line.

3. Homes Usually Sell Faster

There’s one more predictable pattern that happens pretty much every Spring based on research from Realtor.com. Homes sell faster (see graph below):

On average, homes sell 20 days faster in the Spring compared to the Winter. That’s almost 3 weeks shaved off your timeline. And that’s a difference you can feel.

Since homes have been taking longer to sell lately, listing your house during what’s usually the most active time of the year means you’re setting yourself up to move as quickly as possible. And isn’t that what sellers really want?

The faster your home sells, the earlier you can move on to what’s next for you.

If you’re eager to go on to your next chapter, need to downsize, or you’ve run out of space, Spring may be your best time to sell. 

Bottom Line

Spring doesn’t guarantee a sale. Strategy still matters. But this season gives you something valuable: momentum.

More buyers. More activity. More opportunity.

The real question is: if you’re going to sell this year, why not do it when the odds are in your favor?

Talk to Stovall Team today about what selling this season could mean for your house and your timeline.

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Should You Wait for Lower Rates?

That is the question we all ask ourselves, wait or make the move?

Mortgage rates have already dropped into the upper 5s twice this year. But after just a few days, they ticked back up into the low 6% range. If you saw that and thought, “Great. I missed it,” you’re not the only one.

A lot of buyers are treating the 5s like some kind of magic number. As if moving from 6.1% to 5.99% suddenly changes everything. And from a mindset perspective, it does feel different.

But here’s the part most people don’t actually run the math on.

The Payment Difference Isn’t What You Think

Let’s say you’re looking at a $500,000 home loan. At 6.1%, generally speaking, your principal and interest payment is roughly $3,030 per month. At 5.9%, it’s about $2,966 per month.

That’s a difference of only $64 a month.

Not $300.

Not $500.

Sixty dollars.

Let that sink in for just a moment.

Yes, over time that $64 a month can add up. But it’s far from the dramatic swing many buyers imagine when they say they’re “waiting for the 5s.”

The psychological impact of seeing a 5 in front of your rate can feel big. The financial impact? It might be something you don’t even notice when it’s all said and done.

Experts Aren’t Predicting a Big Drop

Another important piece to think about: most housing economists aren’t forecasting a long-term return to 5% territory anytime soon.

While rates will move up and down, likely hitting the high 5s here and there, the broader expectation is for mortgage rates to hover in the low 6% range this year, not stay in the 5’s or decline much more.

While it certainly could happen, the reality is, waiting for a deep drop may not deliver the payoff you’re hoping for, if you’re holding out

The Bigger Question to Ask

Instead of asking, “Did I miss the 5s?” A better question is: “Does today’s payment work for me?” 

If the monthly payment fits comfortably in your budget, and you’ve found a home that meets your needs, the difference between 6.1% and 5.9% likely isn’t the deciding factor. It might be one of them, but it shouldn’t be everything. 

And remember, mortgage rates aren’t permanent. If they drop meaningfully later, refinancing is always an option. But you can’t refinance a home you didn’t buy.

Waiting Might Feel Safe, But It Isn’t Always Strategic

It’s natural to want the best possible rate. Everyone does. But sometimes buyers overestimate how much a rate in the high 5s will change things in today’s market.

Don’t miss the fact that rates have already come down. A year ago, they were in the 7s. Now? They’re hovering in the low 6s. And for a lot of people, that percentage point difference that’s already here is the real game changer.

If you paused your plans when rates were higher, now may be the right time to re-run your numbers. Not because rates are “perfect.” But because the monthly payment math might work better than you think, even with rates in the low 6s. 

Before assuming you’ve missed your moment, take another look at the numbers.

You may find it never disappeared.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been sitting on the sidelines waiting for that magic five number for rates, that strategy may not pay off as much as you’d expect.

Connect with Stovall Team today at 714.343.9294 so we can double check the math at your price point. You may realize payments are already within your range.

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