Myth vs. Reality: Does the Fed Control Mortgage Rates?

You’ve probably heard the Federal Reserve (the Fed) is raising rates again. And if you’re planning to buy or sell a house, you may be wondering what that means for you.

With all the headlines, it’s easy to think the Fed sets mortgage rates. That’s actually a common myth. But the Fed’s decisions can still have an impact on them.

So, where does that leave you? The next few months could get a little bumpy. But the Fed is playing the long game. And with the right plan, you can still make a move that works. Let’s break it down.

Why the Fed Is Raising Rates

It all comes back to inflation. With prices rising fast, everything is getting more expensive – and that leaves buyers with less spending power and makes homes cost more to build.

So, the Fed raises its key short-term rate (the Federal Funds Rate) to slow down inflation. And that’s where a lot of people get tripped up.

  • MYTH: The Fed controls mortgage rates.
  • REALITY: The Fed has an impact on mortgage rates, but it’s only one piece of the puzzle.

As NerdWallet explains:

“The Federal Reserve influences mortgage rates, but doesn’t set them. . . Mortgage rates are influenced by many elements, including the inflation rate, the pace of job creation, and whether the economy is growing or shrinking. The Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is a factor, too . . .”

Here’s the simplest way to explain how it all fits together. Mortgage rates tend to follow something called the 10-year treasury yield. That’s the return investors get for lending money to the government for 10 years. And that yield moves up and down based on what investors expect from inflation and the economy.

Right now, one of the biggest things moving that yield is the conflict in Iran. It’s pushed oil prices higher, which has investors worried about inflation. That’s why any news about the conflict can move mortgage rates. If there’s resolution in Iran, that could take some pressure off inflation and mortgage rates. But the timing is hard to predict.

What the Fed does can move that yield, too. When they hike the Federal Funds Rate to fight inflation, investors pay attention. That can push the 10-year yield up, and mortgage rates usually follow. But once inflation cools, the yield has room to come back down, and mortgage rates can, too. That gives buyers some of their purchasing power back (see graphic below):

a diagram of a federal funds rate

Think of it as a little pain today to set up some relief down the road. But how long could that short-term pain last? A lot depends on what the Fed does next.

There’s a Strong Possibility the Fed Will Hike Again This Year

According to CME FedWatch, there’s over an 80% chance the Fed hikes their federal funds rate at least once more before the end of 2026 (see graph below):

a graph of hikers with blue squares

Remember, the Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates. But another hike will likely keep upward pressure on them in the short term. So, should you wait it out? Sam Williamson, Senior Economist at First American, says this:

“Over time, firmer Fed action could help steady the bond market and open the door to lower mortgage rates, but only if investors become more confident that inflation is coming under control.“

And there are some early signs that’s starting to happen. Inflation cooled faster than experts expected in August:

  • PCE inflation dropped to 3.4%, down from 3.7% in July.
  • Core PCE (the Fed’s preferred measure which leaves out food and energy prices) fell to 3%, down from 3.3%.

That’s a step in the right direction, and it’s part of why the odds of a hike at the Fed’s October meeting have come down recently. But inflation’s still above the Fed’s 2% target, and it’s been that way for about 5 years. So, lower rates could still take a while. Your best bet is a plan that works at today’s rates.

How To Make Your Move Work Right Now

While this rate hike cycle isn’t the headline you want to see, it doesn’t mean you have to wait. There are still ways to move, even now.

  • If you’re buying: Get pre-approved so you know your real budget. Ask your lender about your options to get the best rate possible. And once you’re under contract, lock your rate so a jump before closing doesn’t raise your payment.
  • If you’re selling: Decide what matters most to you – a quick sale or top dollar. Each one can call for a different plan. Price for today’s buyers, whose budgets are smaller with higher rates. And think about offering a rate buydown or other concession. They can do more for a buyer’s budget than a price cut.

Bottom Line

The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates, but its hikes can keep them higher for a while. The goal is to bring inflation, and eventually rates, down over time. With more hikes likely this year, waiting may not pay off. So, connect with a local real estate agent to map out a plan that works at today’s rates.

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Selling in the ‘Ber Months? Stovall Team Will Help You Get These 4 Things Right.

Selling your house this fall is absolutely doable. But there’s something you need to know about this time of year. 

Buyer activity typically starts to slow while the number of homes for sale climb – and you need the right strategy to get attention in this type of market.

The good news? There’s a lot you can control, and Stovall Team knows our local market.

From how you price and present your house to how you negotiate and respond to feedback. Here are four things you’ll want to get right this fall. 

#1: Price To Get Buyers’ Attention

In the fall, there are typically fewer buyers looking and more homes for them to choose from. So, you want to make the most of every buyer who comes across your house.

And your price is one of the first things that can make them stop and take a closer look – or keep scrolling. 

That’s why this isn’t the time to start high “just to see what happens.”

If buyers think your house is overpriced, they have plenty of other options to move on to. And that could leave you sitting and waiting.

So, if you want to sell before year-end, work with your agent to find the right price for your house and today’s market. That may mean listing at market value – or even slightly below it – to grab buyers’ attention.

Redfin explains how a seemingly small difference can change your buyer pool: 

“Buyers often search in round-number price brackets, so pricing at $499,000 instead of $505,000 can make your home appear in more searches and feel like a better deal.” 

#2: Make a Great First Impression

When buyers had very few homes to choose from, they were often more willing to overlook dated finishes or a house that needed some work. That’s harder to count on now.

With more choices, how your house looks online and in person can determine whether it makes a buyer’s shortlist at all.

That doesn’t mean you need a full renovation before you sell, but you should take care of essential repairs, do what you can to boost curb appeal, and make sure your house photographs well. Maybe that’s some light staging, maybe it’s swapping out faucets or lights, or maybe a fresh coat of paint. Small details can help a lot.

After all, you only get one chance to make that first impression. Make it count.

#3: Stay Open To Negotiating

Some sellers are still expecting the kind of leverage they had a few years ago. But in many markets, buyers have more negotiating power today and there’s a lot more give and take.

The latest data from Redfin shows 46.2% of sellers gave buyers some type of concession. So, consider throwing in a little help with closing costs or covering a repair. Almost half of sellers are.

The takeaway? Playing hard ball may not get you what you want. But being flexible might. The key is not getting so focused on “winning” every individual negotiation that you lose sight of the bigger goal: making your move happen.

Sometimes a small concession is what gets you to the closing table.

#4: Know When It’s Time To Adjust

Sometimes your house tells you when something isn’t working. Maybe you’re getting plenty of online views but very few showings. Or buyers are coming through, but you’re not getting offers. Or maybe buyer feedback has one recurring theme.

Pay attention to those signals. They can help you figure out what needs to change.

Let’s say your price is the most common point of feedback. Talk to your agent about a price drop. It doesn’t have to be a big change to make a big difference. The average price cut right now is 4% according to HousingWire Data. That’s normal.

Now, that doesn’t mean you should panic and slash your price after a week. It means you and your agent should pay attention to what buyers are telling you and adjust if you need to.

Sometimes the smartest move isn’t waiting for the right buyer. It’s making sure you’re giving that buyer a reason to act.

Bottom Line

Selling this fall is absolutely doable. And now you know four of the biggest things to get right.

If you want to sell before the end of the year, connect with Micah Stovall 714.343.9294 to make sure you have the right strategy from day one.

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Why So Many Sellers Are Cutting Their Price Right Now

Price cuts are turning up everywhere right now, and they read very differently depending on which side of the deal you’re on.

Sellers tend to worry a cut means walking away with less than they hoped. Sometimes that’s true, but more often it just means the market moved faster than the listing did.

Buyers, for their part, often assume a cut means something’s wrong with the house. Most of the time, that’s not it.

This is what’s actually driving all those price cuts, and why it matters no matter which side of the deal you’re on.

42% of Homes for Sale Are Now Carrying a Price Cut

According to HousingWire Data, the share of sellers cutting their asking price has climbed every month for 7 straight months (see chart below):

a graph showing the growth of a straight month

Today, more than 4 in 10 active listings have had at least 1 price cut, and the typical seller is cutting about $17,560 off their original number. 

Here’s why that’s happening. With rates still elevated and more homes to choose from, buyers can afford to wait for the right number. So, sellers who don’t start there often end up adjusting anyway.

What does that mean for you?

  • If you’re selling, this isn’t a red flag. But it is a sign that pricing it right from day 1 is your best bet. Just know that the market’s been shifting fast enough this year that sometimes even a well-priced house can fall behind within a matter of weeks. If that happens to you, dropping your price to catch up to where pricing actually stands today tends to bring in more buyers and helps you sell closer to true market value.
  • If you’re buying, it’s easy to assume a price cut means something’s wrong with the house. But with cuts happening on more than 4 in 10 homes right now, the reality is sellers are just catching up to where the market already is. And with affordability still tight, that’s exactly the kind of opening you need to get a better deal.

Why Sellers Are Adjusting Faster than Before

HousingWire Data also shows list prices are trending down nationally. That’s often a sign sellers are pricing more realistically from the start instead of listing high and getting stuck cutting later. List prices have fallen about $26,000 from last year’s peak.

Some of that decline is seasonal, since list prices typically soften each winter before rebounding in the spring. So, expect asking prices to keep drifting a little lower before turning back around (see chart below):

a graph of a number of people

Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, explains: 

“That is good news for buyers, who are seeing lower asking prices and more room to negotiate, but it is also good news for sellers: Pricing to today’s demand is helping homes move and keeping more transactions alive in a high-rate environment.”

Translation – with rates still elevated, buyers can only stretch so far. Sellers who meet them where they are instead of holding out for unrealistic prices are the ones actually getting to closing. And doing that up front is always better than chasing the market later.

Buyers, You’ve Got Room To Negotiate Again

At the same time, Redfin data shows sellers now outnumber buyers by about 58%, the widest gap on record (see chart below):

a graph of sales

That changes the power dynamics of the market – and impacts how homeowners should price their house. Nationally, about 7 in 10 markets now favor buyers or are trending that way.

  • For sellers, that means standing out matters as much as pricing. With more homes to choose from, buyers are comparing you directly against the competition. So, a little flexibility, like covering closing costs or being open on timing, can be what gets your house picked over another.
  • For buyers, it means more room to ask for a lower price, help with closing costs, repairs after inspection, or some combination of all 3. That’s especially true for homes that have already sat for weeks, where sellers are often the most willing to talk.

Bottom Line

Price cuts are a normal part of today’s housing market, and both buyers and sellers can use them to their advantage. Connect with Stovall Team’s Micah Stovall 714.343.9294 to look at what’s actually happening with prices in your neighborhood, so you know exactly where you stand before you list or make an offer.

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Why Local Buyers Shouldn’t Overlook a Fall Move

You’ve been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected…

While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates, only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor. 

Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, says:

“We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October.”

And that’s exactly why, if you’ve been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are.

1. There Are More Homes To Choose From

One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that.

Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year (see graph below):

a graph of a number of homesWhy does this happen? Homes that hit the market in spring and summer don’t all close right away. Some sit. New listings keep coming. And inventory builds as the year goes on.

By fall, you’re looking at the largest pool of available homes all year. That makes it easier to find one that works for your needs and your budget. And if anything, this should be true this year. Rates that are higher for longer tend to help inventory grow even more.

More choices can mean fewer compromises. You’re more likely to find the right home, not just the one that happens to be available.

2. Asking Prices Start To Drop

Having more choices is great. But if every home is still priced too high, that only gets you so far. That’s where fall’s second advantage kicks in: asking prices start their seasonal decline. 

HousingWire data shows this trend over time (see graph below):

a graph of a number of blue and green barsIt works like this. Spring and early summer are when sellers feel the most confident because that’s when demand is typically strongest. So, many homeowners price their homes higher during those periods because of the uptick in demand.

But every year, like clockwork, that dynamic starts to change by fall. Buyer activity slows down as the weather cools off. So, sellers have to price a bit lower to try to draw buyers in. And that’s good for your bottom line.

3. More Sellers Are Willing To Negotiate

But fall doesn’t just bring more choices and lower asking prices. It also brings more sellers who are increasingly motivated to get a deal done. 

You can see it in the data. Most years, fall is when price cuts peak according to Realtor.com data (see graph below):

a graph of sales with numbers and text

While it’s not a big difference from summer, this fall you’ll have more negotiation power than you’d have if you wait until the first half of 2027. Here’s why. 

If a home is on the market in the fall, many sellers are eager to get it sold before the holidays. And since there are usually fewer buyers active in the fall, that often leads to another opportunity to snag a better deal. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Less competition can lead to better deals. While homes are not selling as fast as during the summer, sellers may be more willing to negotiate.”

Even a small seller compromise here can make a meaningful difference for you. 

As an example, a 5% price drop on a $500,000 home is $25,000. That could mean you end up borrowing less, keeping more money in savings, having room in the budget for updates after you move in, or simply making the monthly payment feel more manageable.

Bottom Line

Of course, every market moves a little differently. More homes. Lower asking prices. Motivated sellers. 

If you’ve been waiting for your search to feel a little more doable, this season may be worth another look.

Have a quick conversation with Micah Stovall about what’s happening in your market. That way you can find out whether this fall gives you opportunities you may not have had a few months ago.

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Who Has the Upper Hand in Today’s Housing Market?

Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal. And just about every seller wants to know if they’ll still get top dollar.

The interesting thing is… both can be right at the exact same time. It just depends on where you live.

That’s because today’s housing market isn’t moving in one direction anymore. Some markets clearly favor buyers. Others still favor sellers. But most are sitting somewhere in the middle.

And knowing which market you’re actually in can completely change the strategy you use to buy or sell (and what expectations you should have). Let’s break it down.

One Number Tells You Who’s Got Leverage

So how do you know which market you’re in? There’s one number that tells the story faster than anything else: the months’ supply of homes for sale. It’s the clearest signal of who’s got leverage – and what strategy you’ll need. Think of it like this.

Imagine no additional homes were listed starting today. Months’ supply tells us how long it would take to sell everything that’s currently on the market based on today’s demand. 

Generally speaking, if months’ supply is:

  • Fewer than 4 months: Sellers usually have the advantage.
  • 4 to 6 months: Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing.
  • More than 6 months: Buyers can usually negotiate for a better deal.

Right now, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data says that number is 4.6 and that puts the overall market back in balanced territory (see graph below):

a graph of a market

That means, as a whole, the market has finally moved back into a much more balanced range after years of being tilted in sellers’ favor. While that may look like the scales have tipped only slightly, it’s enough to make a real difference in what strategy you’ll need for your move – at least in most places.

The Tale of Two Markets: Why ‘Balanced’ Doesn’t Mean the Same Thing Everywhere

Redfin data helps shed some light on how this shakes out across the country. It breaks down which cities are leaning in either direction (see graph below).

  • Some markets give buyers more leverage. Those are in blue.
  • Some still favor sellers. That’s the orange.
  • Others fall somewhere in between. Those are gray. 

a graph of a marketNotice anything? A lot more places are seeing more buyer-friendly conditions right now.  In fact, this is the most buyer-friendly market we’ve seen in nearly 6 years.

But don’t take that as buyers have the upper hand everywhere.

There are still cities where sellers still have the power. And if you’re in one of them, your approach to selling or buying looks completely different than it would in a buyer-leaning market.

The Biggest Mistake You Can Make Right Now

That’s why the biggest mistake isn’t thinking it’s finally a buyer’s market. And it isn’t thinking it’s still a seller’s market either. It’s making any assumption without talking to an expert agent first. Call me today at 714.343.9294.

Today’s market is incredibly local. In one market, a buyer may be getting thousands of dollars in concessions from a seller. And a homeowner may have to consider dropping their price.  

But in another, a buyer may be stressed about coming in with their best offer, or they may lose out on the home to another buyer. And a seller may still be seeing strong demand and prices inching higher.

Same overall housing market.

Very different experiences.

The truth is what’s happening in your back yard affects everything from pricing your house to making an offer to negotiating repairs or concessions. And that’s why our local knowledge matters more now than ever before.

Your plan has to be based on your neighborhood – and Stovall Team has the expertise to get that right.

Bottom Line

This market isn’t one-size-fits-all.

If you’re wondering who has the upper hand where you live, talk to Stovall Team. We will help you understand what’s happening in your market, who’s got the leverage, and what strategy gives you the best shot at getting what you want.

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Here’s Where To Start if You’re Selling and Buying at the Same Time

If you’re a homeowner getting ready to move, one question usually comes first: should you buy your next home before you sell, or sell your current house before you start looking?

There’s no single right answer. The best call depends on your finances, your local market, and your timeline. And a trusted agent can help you weigh all of it. Call Stovall Team today 714.343.9294.

But in a lot of cases these days, selling first puts you in the stronger spot.

The Advantages of Selling First

Selling is usually the trickier half of a move today, so getting it done first clears your biggest hurdle. And that’s especially true right now, because there are more homes for sale than there are buyers, which means houses are taking longer to sell than they did a year or two ago.

So how does leading with your sale pay off? Let’s start with the money.

1. You Won’t Get Stuck Paying Two Mortgages

Buy before you sell, and you could end up carrying two mortgages at once. And especially since houses are staying on the market longer these days, that overlap may drag on for more time than you’d planned. And if unexpected repairs come up, it could get even more expensive.

Selling first takes that risk off the table, so you’re not multitasking homeownership. As Ramsey Solutions puts it:

“It’s best to sell your old home before buying a new one to avoid unnecessary risks and possible headaches.“

2. You Can Use Your Equity To Fuel Your Move

This is always true, but one of the biggest perks of selling first is that you’ll know exactly how much money you’re walking away with. And one of the big figures that matters in that conversation is how much equity you have in your current place.

Equity is basically your house’s value minus what you still owe on your mortgage. And it adds up fast. According to Realtor.com, homeowners who’ve been in their home for 5 years have about $180,000 in equity on average. And those who’ve had their home for 6-10 years? They have over $340,000.

After you sell, you can use that money to cover your down payment or even buy your next home in cash. And knowing that profit up front helps you plan your next move.

3. Your Offer Will Be Hard To Pass Up

When your house is already sold, you don’t have to make your offer contingent on that sale. In a market where buyers are taking their time, that’s exactly what a seller wants to see.

Picture it from the seller’s side. If their house has been sitting for a while, they’ll gravitate toward the offer most likely to close without a snag.

That can also give you room to ask for a little more, like repairs, since a motivated seller would rather keep things moving than lose you and wait for another offer to come in. Your agent can help you make the most of your upper hand in that scenario.

Is There a Catch?

Selling first has its tradeoffs too, and it helps to see the pros and cons side by side before you decide. Here’s a quick breakdown based on information from Zillow (see visual below):

a screenshot of a video game

The cons are manageable with the right plan, so talk about them with your agent. They can help you negotiate things like a rent-back, where you stay in your house for a set time after closing, or line up flexible closing dates to keep the transition smooth.

Bottom Line

There’s no one-size-fits-all answer to buying and selling at once. But for a lot of homeowners, leading with the sale makes moving easier on their mind and their wallet.

Connect with Stovall Team, and they’ll help you navigate selling and buying with more confidence, more financial power, and less stress.

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