Ask around and almost every homebuyer out there wants to know if there’s a way to get a better deal. And just about every seller wants to know if they’ll still get top dollar.
The interesting thing is… both can be right at the exact same time. It just depends on where you live.
That’s because today’s housing market isn’t moving in one direction anymore. Some markets clearly favor buyers. Others still favor sellers. But most are sitting somewhere in the middle.
And knowing which market you’re actually in can completely change the strategy you use to buy or sell (and what expectations you should have). Let’s break it down.
One Number Tells You Who’s Got Leverage
So how do you know which market you’re in? There’s one number that tells the story faster than anything else: the months’ supply of homes for sale. It’s the clearest signal of who’s got leverage – and what strategy you’ll need. Think of it like this.
Imagine no additional homes were listed starting today. Months’ supply tells us how long it would take to sell everything that’s currently on the market based on today’s demand.
Generally speaking, if months’ supply is:
- Fewer than 4 months: Sellers usually have the advantage.
- 4 to 6 months: Buyers and sellers are on more equal footing.
- More than 6 months: Buyers can usually negotiate for a better deal.
Right now, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) data says that number is 4.6 and that puts the overall market back in balanced territory (see graph below):
That means, as a whole, the market has finally moved back into a much more balanced range after years of being tilted in sellers’ favor. While that may look like the scales have tipped only slightly, it’s enough to make a real difference in what strategy you’ll need for your move – at least in most places.
The Tale of Two Markets: Why ‘Balanced’ Doesn’t Mean the Same Thing Everywhere
Redfin data helps shed some light on how this shakes out across the country. It breaks down which cities are leaning in either direction (see graph below).
- Some markets give buyers more leverage. Those are in blue.
- Some still favor sellers. That’s the orange.
- Others fall somewhere in between. Those are gray.
Notice anything? A lot more places are seeing more buyer-friendly conditions right now. In fact, this is the most buyer-friendly market we’ve seen in nearly 6 years.
But don’t take that as buyers have the upper hand everywhere.
There are still cities where sellers still have the power. And if you’re in one of them, your approach to selling or buying looks completely different than it would in a buyer-leaning market.
The Biggest Mistake You Can Make Right Now
That’s why the biggest mistake isn’t thinking it’s finally a buyer’s market. And it isn’t thinking it’s still a seller’s market either. It’s making any assumption without talking to an expert agent first. Call me today at 714.343.9294.
Today’s market is incredibly local. In one market, a buyer may be getting thousands of dollars in concessions from a seller. And a homeowner may have to consider dropping their price.
But in another, a buyer may be stressed about coming in with their best offer, or they may lose out on the home to another buyer. And a seller may still be seeing strong demand and prices inching higher.
Same overall housing market.
Very different experiences.
The truth is what’s happening in your back yard affects everything from pricing your house to making an offer to negotiating repairs or concessions. And that’s why our local knowledge matters more now than ever before.
Your plan has to be based on your neighborhood – and Stovall Team has the expertise to get that right.
Bottom Line
This market isn’t one-size-fits-all.
If you’re wondering who has the upper hand where you live, talk to Stovall Team. We will help you understand what’s happening in your market, who’s got the leverage, and what strategy gives you the best shot at getting what you want.
Why Local Buyers Shouldn’t Overlook a Fall Move
You’ve been waiting for something to change before you buy. It just might not be the thing you expected…
While everyone’s paying attention to mortgage rates, only the savviest buyers know that the changing season can start tipping things in their favor.
Because every fall, buyers tend to get more to choose from, better prices, and more room to negotiate. And that’s why Hannah Jones, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, says:
“We always see that the best time to buy window usually falls in the early fall around October.”
And that’s exactly why, if you’ve been waiting for a better moment to buy, this season may be worth a closer look – even with rates where they are.
1. There Are More Homes To Choose From
One of the biggest frustrations buyers have had over the past few years has been a lack of choices. Fall tends to help with that.
Based on seasonal trends, Realtor.com data shows there are typically more homes available for sale in September through November than during any other season of the year (see graph below):
By fall, you’re looking at the largest pool of available homes all year. That makes it easier to find one that works for your needs and your budget. And if anything, this should be true this year. Rates that are higher for longer tend to help inventory grow even more.
More choices can mean fewer compromises. You’re more likely to find the right home, not just the one that happens to be available.
2. Asking Prices Start To Drop
Having more choices is great. But if every home is still priced too high, that only gets you so far. That’s where fall’s second advantage kicks in: asking prices start their seasonal decline.
HousingWire data shows this trend over time (see graph below):
But every year, like clockwork, that dynamic starts to change by fall. Buyer activity slows down as the weather cools off. So, sellers have to price a bit lower to try to draw buyers in. And that’s good for your bottom line.
3. More Sellers Are Willing To Negotiate
But fall doesn’t just bring more choices and lower asking prices. It also brings more sellers who are increasingly motivated to get a deal done.
You can see it in the data. Most years, fall is when price cuts peak according to Realtor.com data (see graph below):
While it’s not a big difference from summer, this fall you’ll have more negotiation power than you’d have if you wait until the first half of 2027. Here’s why.
If a home is on the market in the fall, many sellers are eager to get it sold before the holidays. And since there are usually fewer buyers active in the fall, that often leads to another opportunity to snag a better deal. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:
Even a small seller compromise here can make a meaningful difference for you.
As an example, a 5% price drop on a $500,000 home is $25,000. That could mean you end up borrowing less, keeping more money in savings, having room in the budget for updates after you move in, or simply making the monthly payment feel more manageable.
Bottom Line
Of course, every market moves a little differently. More homes. Lower asking prices. Motivated sellers.
If you’ve been waiting for your search to feel a little more doable, this season may be worth another look.
Have a quick conversation with Micah Stovall about what’s happening in your market. That way you can find out whether this fall gives you opportunities you may not have had a few months ago.